| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21d.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34T/4BUFBTL | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21d/2024/09.02.17.09 (restricted access) | |||
| Last Update | 2024:09.02.17.09.22 (UTC) simone | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21d/2024/09.02.17.09.22 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2024:12.26.17.57.55 (UTC) administrator | |||
| DOI | 10.2166/wcc.2024.127 | |||
| ISSN | 2040-2244 | |||
| Citation Key | MeloAlvaTomaSant:2024:UnAnLo | |||
| Title | Uncertainty analysis on long-term runoff projection from the Budyko framework and a conceptual hydrological model  | |||
| Year | 2024 | |||
| Month | July | |||
| Access Date | 2025, May 09 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 1245 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Melo, Pamela Aparecida 2 Alvarenga, Livia Alves 3 Tomasella, Javier 4 Santos, Ana Carolina N. | |||
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 3 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHE3 | |||
| ORCID | 1 0000-0003-4534-9575 2 0000-0002-2291-7966 3 0000-0003-2597-8833 4 0000-0002-0200-6006 | |||
| Group | 1 2 3 DIIAV-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) 2 Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) 3 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 4 Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN) | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 2 3 javier.tomasella@inpe.br | |||
| Journal | Journal of Water and Climate Change | |||
| Volume | 15 | |||
| Number | 8 | |||
| Pages | e3850 | |||
| History (UTC) | 2024-09-02 17:10:58 :: simone -> administrator :: 2024 2024-12-26 17:57:55 :: administrator -> simone :: 2024 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Keywords | climate change scenarios model parameters Pareto front | |||
| Abstract | Runoff projections are subject to uncertainties related to model structure and parameters. This study aims to analyze uncertainties in longterm runoff estimations from an empirical (Budyko framework) and a conceptual hydrological model (MHD-INPE). Results indicate that both MHD-INPE and Budyko estimations tend to overestimate long-term runoff during years of recurring droughts. Pareto front solutions in MHDINPE exhibited small uncertainties in long-term runoff estimations regarding parameter calibration (bias between 5 and 7%); differences were observed in low (bellow 5% variation) and high (bellow 10% variation) daily runoff. Related to model structure uncertainties, both models follow similar patterns and performance for a qualitative analysis. Budykos future projections tend to exceed MHD-INPEs during high precipitation estimates, where at 2000 mm yearly precipitation the estimated runoff from Budyko tends to be 100 mm greater than the hydrological model. Under arid conditions Budyko tends to estimate smaller runoff than MHD-INPE due to variations in soil moisture and water storage not properly represented in Budykos parameter. Although uncertainties were identified related to model complexity and calibrated parameters, higher uncertainties were identified as related to the climate models. Therefore, the Budyko method is a viable alternative for first-order analysis of long-term impacts. | |||
| Area | CST | |||
| Arrangement | urlib.net > Produção a partir de 2021 > CGCT > Uncertainty analysis on... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | jwc2024127.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Reader Group | administrator simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Mirror Repository | urlib.net/www/2021/06.04.03.40.25 | |||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/46KUATE | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; SCOPUS. | |||
| Host Collection | urlib.net/www/2021/06.04.03.40 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivingpolicy archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn label lineage mark nextedition notes parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey secondarymark session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||