| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Conference Paper (Conference Proceedings) | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Site | mtc-m21d.sid.inpe.br (namespace prefix: upn:44QHRCS) | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34T/4AC7S5S | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21d/2023/12.11.12.31 | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21d/2023/12.11.12.31.40 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2024:01.02.17.16.56 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Secondary Key | INPE--PRE/ | |||
| Citation Key | PachecoMAGFAHBHMSTWGF:2023:StMaRi | |||
| Title | Strategic hydropower planning in a warming world: strategies for the Magdalena River basin, Colombia  | |||
| Year | 2023 | |||
| Access Date | 2026, Nov. 06 | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE CI | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Pacheco, Felipe 2 Munar, Andrés 3 Almeida, Rafael 4 Grimson, Marc 5 Fleischmann, Ayan Santos 6 Angarita, Hector 7 Heilpern, Sebastian 8 Bernstein, Rich 9 Herrera, Guido A. 10 Miranda, Marcela Aparecida Campos Neves 11 Sethi, Suresh 12 Thomas, Steven 13 Wilcox, Andrew C. 14 Gomes, Carla 15 Flecker, Alexander | |||
| Group | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 DIIAV-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Cornell University 2 Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia 3 The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley 4 Cornell University 5 Mamirauá Institute for Sustainable Development 6 Stanford University 7 Cornell University 8 Cornell University 9 University of Tennessee 10 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 11 Cornell University 12 University of Alabama 13 University of Montana 14 Cornell University 15 Cornell University | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 marcela.miranda@inpe.br | |||
| Conference Name | AGU FAll Meeting | |||
| Conference Location | San Francisco, CA | |||
| Date | 11-15 Dec. 2023 | |||
| Publisher | AGU | |||
| Book Title | Proceedings | |||
| Host Collection | urlib.net/www/2021/06.04.03.40 upn:44QHRCS | |||
| History (UTC) | 2023-12-11 12:31:40 :: simone -> administrator :: 2024-01-02 17:16:56 :: administrator -> simone :: 2023 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Abstract | The Magdalena River basin, Colombias largest river system, is pivotal to the countrys hydropower-driven decarbonization plans. As the basin becomes a focal point for renewable energy, a pressing consideration emerges: how will climate change influence strategic hydropower planning, and how can resilience and economic feasibility of hydropower be maintained? Despite the promise of hydropower development in the region, the limited integration of climate change considerations into prevailing dam planning frameworks poses significant challenges. Driven by climatic factors, alterations in river discharge risk undermining hydropower production and raise concerns over the broader economic implications and reliability of hydropower dams. Here we evaluate the possible climate change-driven alterations in river discharge and their consequent impacts on hydropower generation by current and proposed dams in the Magdalena River basin. We also examine the economic consequences of these potential changes. Ultimately, our goal is to find future dam portfolios that improve hydropower systems reliability and economic viability under climate change. We evaluate the climate change impact on 125 proposed hydropower dams in the Magdalena River basin by comparing projected power generation under current baseline hydrology (19862005) and future conditions (2046-2065) based on two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Utilizing a multi-objective optimization framework, we identify Pareto-optimal dam portfolios that minimize the cost of electricity production and environmental impacts of dams while meeting electricity generation demands. Projections for mid-century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios reveal significant reductions in hydropower generation (15% and 22 %, respectively) with the steepest declines observed in the central basin. Climatic changes lead to frequent low-discharge interruptions, less optimal full-capacity operations at many dams and fundamentally modify strategic hydropower planning recommendations. Our findings underscore the need for climate-smart planning for future hydropower development in the Magdalena River basin, especially considering Colombia's plans to increasingly rely on hydropower to provide grid stability for variable renewable energy sources. The Magdalena River basin, central to Colombia's hydropower decarbonization, faces challenges from climate change's impact on hydropower planning and its economic feasibility. With growing emphasis on renewables, integrating climate considerations into dam planning is essential. Climatic influences can alter river discharges, potentially jeopardizing hydropower outputs and raising economic and reliability concerns. Our study assesses climate-induced changes in river discharges, and their effects on current and proposed dams' hydropower generation in the basin. We also explore the economic implications of these changes. By comparing power generation under current hydrology (19862005) with projections for 2046-2065 based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios, we evaluate impacts on 125 proposed dams. Our multi-objective optimization identifies optimal dam portfolios that balance production costs and environmental concerns, meeting generation demands. Findings indicate significant hydropower reductions by mid-century, especially in the central basin, leading to disruptions and sub-optimal operations. Given Colombia's increased reliance on hydropower for grid stability with other renewables, our results highlight the urgency for climate-informed planning in future Magdalena River basin hydropower endeavors. | |||
| Area | CST | |||
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção a partir de 2021 > CGCT > Strategic hydropower planning... | |||
| doc Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| Language | en | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/46KUATE | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination doi e-mailaddress edition editor format isbn issn keywords label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberoffiles numberofvolumes orcid organization pages parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisheraddress readergroup readpermission resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle size sponsor subject targetfile tertiarymark tertiarytype type url volume | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||